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Crypto Dual Momentum (BTC / ETH)

Absolute momentum on a two-asset universe. Holds Bitcoin and Ethereum only while each is above its own 100-day moving average and its 90-day trend is positive; anything failing both tests is simply not held, so the strategy sits in cash through downtrends. Weekly.

Why this is expected to work

Trend-following has worked better in crypto than in almost any other asset class, for a structural reason: the market is young, dominated by retail flow, has no valuation anchor to mean-revert toward, and runs 24/7 with no circuit breakers. That combination produces long persistent trends and violent, uninterrupted drawdowns. The critical design choice here is ABSOLUTE momentum (is this asset trending up?) rather than relative momentum (which of the two is trending more?). With only two correlated assets, a relative screen is always fully invested in whichever is falling less, which in crypto means holding through 70-80% drawdowns — Bitcoin has had several. Antonacci (2014) makes the general case that the absolute filter, not the relative ranking, is what does the drawdown work in dual momentum. Position sizing uses inverse volatility because ETH is structurally more volatile than BTC, so equal rupee weights are not equal risk.

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Universe
Crypto Perpetuals HYPERLIQ
Rebalance
Weekly Inverse volatility

How the pipeline works

Calculate

100-day average

Computes sma_100 = @SMA(close, 100)

@SMA(close, 100)
Filter

Above its 100-day average

Keeps rows where close > sma_100

close > sma_100
Calculate

Price 90 days ago

Computes price_90d_ago = @shift(close, 90)

@shift(close, 90)
Calculate

90-day trend

Computes trend_90d = close / price_90d_ago

close / price_90d_ago
Filter

90-day trend positive

Keeps rows where trend_90d > 1

trend_90d > 1
Rank

Hold whatever passes

Selects the top 2 by trend_90d

What this template teaches

  • Crypto as a security type on the same engine
  • Absolute vs relative momentum — going to cash is a position
  • Chained calculators building a two-condition trend filter
  • Fractional units (you cannot buy a whole Bitcoin)
Read the full write-up

Crypto Trend Following: Why Absolute Momentum Beats Relative

With two correlated assets, a relative momentum screen is always fully invested in whichever is falling less. In an asset class with repeated 70% drawdowns, that distinction is the whole strategy.